Global trends 2025–2026 for insurance intermediaries: soft market, AI, consolidation and protection gaps

Leading international studies for 2025–2026 paint a mixed picture for agents and brokers. The market is no longer growing on the back of rate increases, competition is intensifying, and technology and consolidation are changing the role of the intermediary.

Growth slows, the market softens

According to an industry forecast published in July 2026, real growth in global insurance premiums is expected to be 1.3% in 2026, after 3.9% in 2025. In non-life insurance, growth will fall to a cyclical low of 0.6%, while in life insurance it will be 2.3%. At the July 2026 reinsurance renewals, property catastrophe reinsurance rates for the best programmes fell by 20–25% or more.

Catastrophes and the protection gap

Insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025 amounted to USD 107 billion against economic losses of USD 220 billion; a record 49% of the losses were insured. The main contribution came from so-called secondary perils: wildfires, severe convective storms and floods. The global catastrophe protection gap is estimated at USD 424 billion in 2025, compared with USD 395 billion a year earlier. In emerging economies, 80–90% of catastrophe losses are uninsured. If the trend continues, insured losses could rise to USD 186 billion by 2030. Analysts stress that the relatively low losses of 2025 are explained by favourable chance rather than by a reduction in risk. This means that the current softening of reinsurance prices does not mean the risk has decreased.

AI in sales and underwriting

Industry studies in 2026 conclude that AI is more likely to empower brokers than to replace them. Automated submission processing, matching insurers to their risk appetite and digital assistants for renewals and cross-selling are already in use. In the future, agentic AI will be able to handle renewals of simple risks almost without human involvement, while brokers will own this process. AIG, which has launched a generative AI-based underwriting assistant, is cited as an example. In its Global Insurance Market Report (GIMAR, December 2025), the IAIS notes that insurers are under strong competitive pressure to find applications for AI.

Broker consolidation

The largest deals of recent years: Aon bought NFP (about USD 13 billion, 2024), Marsh McLennan bought McGriff (USD 7.75 billion, November 2024), Gallagher bought AssuredPartners (USD 13.45 billion, closed in August 2025), and Brown & Brown bought Accession (USD 9.83 billion, August 2025). According to analysts, consolidation strengthens intermediaries' negotiating position with insurers, including on commissions, and blurs the boundaries between different types of distributors.

Embedded insurance

Embedded insurance is the sale of a policy as part of another purchase: a car, equipment, a ticket or a financial product. According to a 2023 forecast, embedded insurance in Asia could reach USD 270 billion in premiums by 2030, with about two-thirds of the growth coming from a shift away from traditional channels, including agency and bancassurance. Comparable global estimates for 2025–2026 from the organisations mentioned could not be found.

Cyber insurance

The global cyber insurance market amounted to almost USD 15 billion in 2025. Premium growth has slowed over the past three years, but around USD 28 billion is expected by 2030. Most cyber incidents and losses occur in micro and small companies, i.e. the segment served by agents and small brokers.

Takeaways for Kazakhstan's market participants

• A soft global reinsurance market may make protection cheaper for insurers, but catastrophe risk is growing. It is important for intermediaries to explain to clients the value of cover, not just its price.
• The protection gap in emerging economies is room for agents to grow in property, life and small business insurance.
• Embedded sales will take away part of the retail flow. Intermediaries should become partners of digital platforms and retailers themselves.
• AI tools for processing submissions and renewals are becoming the norm. The ability to work with data is becoming a competitive advantage even for a small broker.
• Cyber risks of small and medium-sized businesses are a niche where an intermediary's advice is particularly in demand.